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Dipole: the 'Indian Niño' that has brought devastating drought to East Africa.

In recent years, enormous socioeconomic damage has been wreaked by recurrent abnormal weather events around the world. The seedbed for this abnormal weather is climate variability events on a massive spatiotemporal scale - those that cover thousands of kilometers and continue over months and years. Here we will review an article featured on the cover of the November 28, 2013 issue of Nature Geoscience on research predicting how a climate variability event in the tropical Indian Ocean, known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), will change with global warming in the future.

◆ Observational data analysis indicates that cold water brought up by coastal upwelling south of Java can trigger the onset of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). ◆ A method to accurately determine coastal upwelling signal based on satellite chlorophyll-a data was developed and used for analysis in areas with limited observations. ◆ As IOD affects the global climate, including summer weather in Japan, the findings of this study are expected to help improve the predictability of both the global climate and IOD.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are anomalously warm events that profoundly affect climate change and local ecosystem. During the summer of 2012 (June-September), intense MHWs occurred in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) concurrently with an unseasonable positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) event. The MHW metrics (duration, frequency, cumulative intensity and maximum intensity) were characterized by northwestward-slanted patterns from west Australia to the Somalia coast. The analysis confirmed that these MHWs were closely associated with the unseasonable pIOD 2012. The weakening of Western North Pacific Subtropical High and strengthening of Australian High in spring induced an interhemispheric pressure gradient that drove two anticyclonic circulation patterns over the eastern TIO. The first anticyclonic circulation featured cross-equatorial wind anomalies from south of Java to the South China Sea/Philippine Sea, which led to strong upwelling off Sumatra-Java during the subsequent summer. The second anticyclonic circulation excited downwelling Rossby waves that propagated from the southeastern TIO to the western TIO. Thus, downwelling in the western pole and upwelling in the eastern pole led to a strong pIOD event peaking in summer, namely, the unseasonable pIOD 2012. These downwelling Rossby waves deepened the thermocline by more than 60 m and caused anomalous surface warming, thereby contributing to the occurrences of MHWs. With the development and peak of the unseasonable pIOD 2012, anomalous atmospheric circulation transported moisture from the TIO to the subtropical Western North Pacific (WNP), favoring a strong cyclonic anomaly that profoundly affected the summer monsoon rainfall over the subtropical WNP. This study provides some perspectives on the role of pIOD events in summer climate over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region.

A study led by BROWN researchers showed how melting ice water from massive glaciers can ultimately lead to droughts and flooding in East Africa and Indonesia.

Flinders University oceanography experts have described a new kind of cyclone in the Indian Ocean near Sumatra after observing satellite surface winds in the region.